class: inverse, center, middle background-color: "#343D46" # Moving The Needle Toward Organizational Success <br> ### Mitch Tanney <a href = "https://www.rstudio.com/"><img src = "RStudio-Logo-White.png" width = "150px"/></a> #### 2021-06-15 --- # A Few Disclaimers .pull-left[ * Today is an introduction only to the field of sports analytics with a heavy bias toward American Football. * My approach represents one of many, but it ideally provides a pragmatic solution to answering challenging questions (sports, business, life). ] -- .pull-right[ .center[] .center["So you're like the guy in Moneyball?"] ] --- # Simulation .center[[Let's roll some dice!](https://mitch-tanney.shinyapps.io/expected-value/)] --- # Framework .center[ `Expected Value = Sum(Probabilities * Payouts)` ] --- # Why This Works (1/3) <img src="R_in_spoRts_analytics_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-1-1.png" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- # Why This Works (2/3) <img src="R_in_spoRts_analytics_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-2-1.png" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- # Why This Works (3/3) `Expected Value = (26/36)(45) + (10/36)(-108)` <br> <br> `Expected Value = (.72)(45) + (.28)(-108)` <br> <br> `Expected Value = 32.5 + (-30)` <br> <br> `Expected Value = $2.50` <br> <br> .center[**Player 1 should play this game all day, every day.**] --- # Win Probability .pull-left[  .center[[ESPN](https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401220403)] ] .pull-right[  .center[[numberFire](https://live.numberfire.com/nfl/7727)] ] --- # Applications (1/2) .center[  <br> [NFL Instant Replay- You Make the Call](https://operations.nfl.com/learn-the-game/making-the-call/you-make-the-call/) ] <br> .left[`Expected Value = Sum(Probabilities * Payouts)`] <br> .left[`Expected Value = (Reversal %)(Positive Change in WP of a Reversal) + (1 - Reversal %)(Negative Change in WP of Losing a Timeout)`] --- # Applications (2/2) .pull-left[ ### Personnel * College and Pro Scouting ### Player Performance * Load Management ### Cap/Labor * Contract Valuation ] .pull-right[ ### Coaching * [4th Down- Advanced Football Analytics](https://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/research/game-strategy/120-4th-down-study) * [More 4th Down- The Athletic, Ben Baldwin (paywall)](https://theathletic.com/2144214/2020/10/28/nfl-fourth-down-decisions-the-math-behind-the-leagues-new-aggressiveness/) * [NFL 4th Down](https://www.nfl.com/videos/next-gen-stats-how-4th-down-decisions-have-shaped-the-2020-playoffs) ] --- # Lessons Learned 1. Consider framing your decisions as bets. 2. Why? Bets require a probabilistic mindset. 3. Small advantages can equate to significant gains in the long run. 4. Luck/variance is real. 5. Process > Outcomes. --- # Getting Started 1. Do something. - [NFL Big Data Bowl](https://www.kaggle.com/c/nfl-big-data-bowl-2021) 2. Approach subject matter experts with humility. 3. If you can't clearly explain your work, don't expect a decision-maker to buy in and use it. 4. Continue attending events like today. --- # Contact Info .center[ [<svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;width:1em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:currentColor;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M459.37 151.716c.325 4.548.325 9.097.325 13.645 0 138.72-105.583 298.558-298.558 298.558-59.452 0-114.68-17.219-161.137-47.106 8.447.974 16.568 1.299 25.34 1.299 49.055 0 94.213-16.568 130.274-44.832-46.132-.975-84.792-31.188-98.112-72.772 6.498.974 12.995 1.624 19.818 1.624 9.421 0 18.843-1.3 27.614-3.573-48.081-9.747-84.143-51.98-84.143-102.985v-1.299c13.969 7.797 30.214 12.67 47.431 13.319-28.264-18.843-46.781-51.005-46.781-87.391 0-19.492 5.197-37.36 14.294-52.954 51.655 63.675 129.3 105.258 216.365 109.807-1.624-7.797-2.599-15.918-2.599-24.04 0-57.828 46.782-104.934 104.934-104.934 30.213 0 57.502 12.67 76.67 33.137 23.715-4.548 46.456-13.32 66.599-25.34-7.798 24.366-24.366 44.833-46.132 57.827 21.117-2.273 41.584-8.122 60.426-16.243-14.292 20.791-32.161 39.308-52.628 54.253z"/></svg> @MitchTanney](http://twitter.com/MitchTanney) [<svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 496 512" style="height:1em;width:0.97em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:currentColor;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M165.9 397.4c0 2-2.3 3.6-5.2 3.6-3.3.3-5.6-1.3-5.6-3.6 0-2 2.3-3.6 5.2-3.6 3-.3 5.6 1.3 5.6 3.6zm-31.1-4.5c-.7 2 1.3 4.3 4.3 4.9 2.6 1 5.6 0 6.2-2s-1.3-4.3-4.3-5.2c-2.6-.7-5.5.3-6.2 2.3zm44.2-1.7c-2.9.7-4.9 2.6-4.6 4.9.3 2 2.9 3.3 5.9 2.6 2.9-.7 4.9-2.6 4.6-4.6-.3-1.9-3-3.2-5.9-2.9zM244.8 8C106.1 8 0 113.3 0 252c0 110.9 69.8 205.8 169.5 239.2 12.8 2.3 17.3-5.6 17.3-12.1 0-6.2-.3-40.4-.3-61.4 0 0-70 15-84.7-29.8 0 0-11.4-29.1-27.8-36.6 0 0-22.9-15.7 1.6-15.4 0 0 24.9 2 38.6 25.8 21.9 38.6 58.6 27.5 72.9 20.9 2.3-16 8.8-27.1 16-33.7-55.9-6.2-112.3-14.3-112.3-110.5 0-27.5 7.6-41.3 23.6-58.9-2.6-6.5-11.1-33.3 2.6-67.9 20.9-6.5 69 27 69 27 20-5.6 41.5-8.5 62.8-8.5s42.8 2.9 62.8 8.5c0 0 48.1-33.6 69-27 13.7 34.7 5.2 61.4 2.6 67.9 16 17.7 25.8 31.5 25.8 58.9 0 96.5-58.9 104.2-114.8 110.5 9.2 7.9 17 22.9 17 46.4 0 33.7-.3 75.4-.3 83.6 0 6.5 4.6 14.4 17.3 12.1C428.2 457.8 496 362.9 496 252 496 113.3 383.5 8 244.8 8zM97.2 352.9c-1.3 1-1 3.3.7 5.2 1.6 1.6 3.9 2.3 5.2 1 1.3-1 1-3.3-.7-5.2-1.6-1.6-3.9-2.3-5.2-1zm-10.8-8.1c-.7 1.3.3 2.9 2.3 3.9 1.6 1 3.6.7 4.3-.7.7-1.3-.3-2.9-2.3-3.9-2-.6-3.6-.3-4.3.7zm32.4 35.6c-1.6 1.3-1 4.3 1.3 6.2 2.3 2.3 5.2 2.6 6.5 1 1.3-1.3.7-4.3-1.3-6.2-2.2-2.3-5.2-2.6-6.5-1zm-11.4-14.7c-1.6 1-1.6 3.6 0 5.9 1.6 2.3 4.3 3.3 5.6 2.3 1.6-1.3 1.6-3.9 0-6.2-1.4-2.3-4-3.3-5.6-2z"/></svg> @mitchtanney](http://github.com/mitchtanney) [<svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;width:1em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:currentColor;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M476 3.2L12.5 270.6c-18.1 10.4-15.8 35.6 2.2 43.2L121 358.4l287.3-253.2c5.5-4.9 13.3 2.6 8.6 8.3L176 407v80.5c0 23.6 28.5 32.9 42.5 15.8L282 426l124.6 52.2c14.2 6 30.4-2.9 33-18.2l72-432C515 7.8 493.3-6.8 476 3.2z"/></svg> mitchelltanney@gmail.com](mailto:mitchelltanney@gmail.com) [<svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;width:1em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-size:inherit;fill:currentColor;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M476 3.2L12.5 270.6c-18.1 10.4-15.8 35.6 2.2 43.2L121 358.4l287.3-253.2c5.5-4.9 13.3 2.6 8.6 8.3L176 407v80.5c0 23.6 28.5 32.9 42.5 15.8L282 426l124.6 52.2c14.2 6 30.4-2.9 33-18.2l72-432C515 7.8 493.3-6.8 476 3.2z"/></svg> mitch.tanney@rstudio.com](mailto:mitch.tanney@rstudio.com) ]